Sunday, July 27, 2008

Steegmans Closes Tour As Sastre Carries Yellow To Paris

The 2008 Tour de France came to a close with Gert Steegmans rescuing Quick Step's tour by taking the famous sprint on the Champs Élysées in Paris. Carlos Sastre lost a handful of seconds as the peleton split on the run in to the finish but it was not enough to seem him lose the overall title. He proudly wore the yellow jersey during the day's race from Étampes to Paris becoming the third consecutive Spanish rider to take the title since Lance Armstrong's seven year reign ended (Oscar Pereiro won in 2006, Alberto Contador in 2007).

As is almost always the case the stage came down to a sprint finish and it was Steegmans, taking on his teams sprinting duties in the absence of Tom Boonen, who finally got it right to land the victory. He beat home Gerald Ciolek and green-jersey winner Oscar Freire who filled the podium just behind Australian Robbie McEwen who had to leave the 2008 Tour without a stage win to his credit. In what was possibly his last Tour, German veteran Erik Zabel finished 11th.

So with the Tour done and dusted for another year it is time for a rundown of the competitions. The yellow jersey goes to Carlos Sastre who finished 58 seconds ahead of Cadel Evans. Bernhard Kohl filled the podium in Paris finishing third some 73 seconds behind Sastre. The green jersey goes to Oscar Freire, the first Spaniard to win the points classification. He was dominant in the 2008 Tour taking the title by 50 points from Thor Hushovd, with Erik Zabel a further 3 points in arrears. The polka dot jersey was also won comprehensively by Bernhard Kohl, by 48 points from CSC teammates Carlos Sastre and Frank Schleck. CSC also has a white jersey to go with their yellow, as Andy Schleck won the Best Young Rider classification by 1 minute 27 seconds from Roman Kreuziger. Vincenzo Nibali was third in the competition, 17 minutes 1 second behind Schleck.

Looking back over this years event there are a number of highlights and (unfortunately) low lights to recall. Feel free to choose your own but here are mine:

Highlights:

  1. Stage 17 - Carlos Sastre wins on L'Alpe d'Huez - Sastre climbs to a solo victory that not only puts his name alongside the greats who have conquered the Alpe, but also laid the foundations for his overall victory.
  2. Mark Cavendish - 4 stage wins - The 23 year old Brit proved himself the fastest man on two-wheels with 4 dominant stage wins. If he was there at the finish there was no one who could match him. Enjoy this guy for years to come.
  3. Stage 15 - Simon Gerrans wins at Prato Nevoso - Simon Gerrans becomes the first Australian to win a high mountains stage, clawing himself up to the Italian ski resort before unleashing a devastating sprint to defeat his breakaway companions.

Honourable mentions go to Andy Schleck (watch out next year), Oscar Freire (first Spaniard to win the Green Jersey), the whole of Team CSC, and Tour organisers for a very creative course this year.

Low lights:

  1. Riccardo Ricco - tests positive for EPO - Fairly obvious. Lights up the first week with climbing displays one could only dream of, then tests positive to the latest advanced strain of EPO. Good riddance!
  2. Cadel Evans - deja vu - There was enough hype to fill a hot air balloon but after pushing motorbike riders, headbutting cameras, and carrying his dog around like a Hollywood starlet we were left with the bitter taste of defeat in the final time trial yet again.
  3. Silence Lotto - conspicuous by their absence - Sure Evans was disappointing but his team were a disgrace. They disappeared faster than last weeks pay any time the road tilted upwards and big $ man Yaroslav Popovych was about as effective as a UN peace-keeping force.

In conclusion, the 2008 Tour was certainly one to remember and with a host of new young riders coming through the greatest race on earth looks set to enter another golden era. My early tip for 2009? Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador to fight it out all the way to Paris.

And stay tuned for The Falcons Definitive 2008 Olympics Guide in coming weeks.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Deja Vu For Evans As Sastre Shines In Gold

On a day that was supposed to be Cadel Evans crowning glory, a plucky Spanish climber once again spoiled the party. Twelve months on from Alberto Contador's 2007 win, Carlos Sastre produced a career-best time-trial display to hold off the charges of Evans, Bernhard Kohl, and Denis Menchov to hold his yellow jersey. Sastre will now ride into Paris tomorrow as the winner of the 2008 Tour de France. No one can doubt he is the most deserving in the race being the only rider, apart from Alejandrdo Valverde, in the top 10 who actually won a stage this year.

On a day when the time-trial specialists were expected to shine, it was Sastre who shined brightest. While the true specialists against the clock, world time trial champion Fabian Cancellara and stage winner Stefan Schumacher (who has apparently found this amazing time trial ability somewhere in the last three weeks), would have gained more than enough time to take the jersey of Sastre, for the leading GC men the challenge never eventuated. While Schumacher took the 53km test from Cérilly to Saint Amand Montrond by 21 seconds from Cancellara (Kim Kirchen filled the podium finishing third), the likes of Menchov and Evans never looked like making up enough ground. In the end Evans only managed to pull back 29 seconds on Sastre, leaving the Spaniard with a minute to spare over the Australian on the general classification. An impressive ride from Kohl saw him hold his podium position for Paris ahead of Menchov and Christian Vande Velde. Frank Schleck had a horrible day against the clock, finishing over five and half minutes behind Schumacher. His podium dreams evaporated and he slipped from 2nd to 6th overall.

As bad as Frank Schleck's performance was, the most disappointing man on the day was Evans. We had been told time and time again that he was a so called specialist against the clock, and that his rivals needed time over him in the mountains, but when the pressure was on once again he was no where to be seen. I don't know where this myth of Evans time trialling ability has come from, but the fact is he has never looked like taking a time trial stage at the Tour. He barely outperformed Kohl last night. He was never going to get near Sastre. Evans leaves the 2008 tour without the final yellow jersey or a stage win. In fact he can thank Vande Velde for dragging him up Hautacamp to the maillot jaune - the only positive thing he has got out of the whole tour. The sad fact is that Evans is a pretender and never will, nor deserves to, win the Tour. On all the main rendezvous (Hautacamp, L'Alpe d'Huez, the final time trial) he was below expectations, but below expectations defines his career in all honesty. This year's Tour was handed to him on a plate and he dropped it. Next year Andy Schleck will be a year older and more mature and most likely Contador will be back so Evans will be lucky to hang onto a podium position. We can now add the 2008 Tour de France to Evans previous failures when the pressure has been on him - the 2000 Sydney Olympics (MTB), and last years Tour.

So, with only the neutralised final stage into Paris to come the competitions are decided. Carlos Sastre will win the 2008 Tour de France. The points competition will go to his countrymen Oscar Freire, who will be the first Spaniard to win the green jersey. Bernhard Kohl will be the King of the Mountains (possibly an investigation needs to be made of Gerolsteiner's drinking water with both Kohl and Schumamcher performing far above any ones expectations this year), while Andy Schleck will hold onto the white jersey for Best Young Rider despite a penultimate day assault from Roman Kreuziger.

However, all honours go to Carlos Sastre, who showed on the climb up to L'Alpe d'Huez that he has all the qualities a Tour winner should have.

Yellow Jersey - Carlos Sastre
Green Jersey - Oscar Freire
Polka Dot Jersey - Bernhard Kohl
White Jersey Andy Schleck

Friday, July 25, 2008

France Victorious on D-Day -1

One day before the final epic rendezvous of this year's Tour one of France's favourite sons, Sylvain Chavanel, finally got the stage victory he had desired for almost a decade. After breaking away with compatriot Jeremy Roy halfway through the stage from Roanne to Montluçon, Chavanel had too much strength and experience in the sprint, ensuring France's third stage win of this years Tour. Roy was brave finishing second while German Gerarld Ciolek filled the podium leading the main bunch home in third.

In another stereotypical third week tour stage the main field were basically happy to let the break go, and finished as a group around 1 minute behind with none of the overall contenders losing time. After crashing yesterday Damiano Cunego's horror Tour ended after he failed to take to the start overnight. Cunego's 2008 performance has once again proved that the Tour is not the Giro, and the Italian prince seems to be much better suited to the climbs of the Dolomites rather than the Alps or the Pyrenees. The stage was run at a hectic pace and heartbreakingly close to Paris Romain Feillu, Juan Antonio Flecha, and German national champion Fabian Wegmann missed the time cut off after being dropped by the peleton on the first climb of the day.

Going into tonight's penultimate stage, a 53 km time trial, Carlos Sastre maintains his 1 minute 24 second lead over teammate Frank Schleck, with hot favourite Cadel Evans a further 10 seconds back. Experts tip the jersey to change hands overnight with most expecting Evans to take around 2 minutes off Sastre by stage end. Andy Schleck leads the white jersey competition by just under 2 minutes from Roman Kreuziger and this competition too may go down to the wire given Kreuziger's dominant display in the time trial that helped him win the Tour de Suisse. With an early breakaway taking all the mountains points there was no change to the race for the polka dot jersey which will be won by Bernhard Kohl so long as he can cross the finish line in Paris. Oscar Freire's lead in the points competition was reduced slightly with both Erik Zabel and Thor Hushovd beating him home in the final sprint but with a 42 point lead over Zabel he should hold the green jersey in Paris barring an absolute catastrophe.

But after 20 days and over 80 hours of racing it has come down to this: D-Day. Tonight's time trial will decided the winner of the 2008 Tour de France. Who are you on? Evans to use his time trial expertise to power away to victory? Sastre to heroically hold on to his yellow jersey just as countrymen Alberto Contador did last year? Or Denis Menchov to blow the field away with a penultimate day victory that would be talked about for years to come? Whatever happens, cycling fans all around the globe will be watching the climax to what must arguably be the closest Tour de France in living memory.

Yellow Jersey - Carlos Sastre
Green Jersey - Oscar Freire
Polka Dot Jersey - Bernhard Kohl
White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Thursday, July 24, 2008

GC Riders Mark Time As Colombia Takes Another Stage

After three hard days in the Alps, the GC riders took a back seat on Stage 18 from Bourg d'Oisans at the foot of L'Alpe d'Huez to the industrial town of Saint Étienne. Marcus Burghardt proved the strongest of the successful breakaway riders to deliver Team Colombia their 5th stage victory of the tour. He defeated Carlos Barredo in the final sprint, with Roman Feillu filling the podium by leading home a small chase group some 3 minutes back.

All of the favourites finished together, although Roman Kreuziger and Andy Schleck did gain a few seconds when Kreuziger tried to reduce Schleck's lead in the White Jersey competition with a late attack. However, Schleck was wary of the Czech's tactics and matched him to the finish to record the same time. Damiano Cunego's horror tour continued as he was dropped by the peleton after crashing very early in the day's stage. He had to be guided home by his teammates some 20 minutes in arrears. He will now be lucky to garner a position in the top 20. After being put on hold in the Alps, the battle for the green jersey was renewed on the run in to Saint Etienne. Oscar Freire increased his lead in the competition leading home rivals Thor Hushovd and Erik Zabel at the head of the main pack. With the breakaway and chase group taking all the points on the climbs there was no change to the King of the Mountains standings.

Obviously the previous stage to L'Alpe d'Huez has led to a major shake up in betting markets. Going into the time trial Cadel Evans is now a clear favourite at $1.50. Carlos Sastre ($3.50), and Denis Menchov ($25) are the only other riders given any realistic chance of winning the overall classification. Honestly, there does not appear to be value in any of these prices. Evans looks especially poor value at the $1.50 but I am not willing to lay him given his exceptional time trialling ability.

Yellow Jersey - Carlos Sastre
Green Jersey - Oscar Freire
Polka Dot Jersey - Bernhard Kohl
White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Tour To Go Down To The Wire After Sastre Produces L'Aple d'Huez Miracle

Bravo Carlos Sastre! Knowing he needed major time over his rivals, more accomplished in the time trial caper, Spanish climber Carlos Sastre produced a performance for the ages on the mythical climb to L'Alpe d'Huez. Hitting the bottom of the Alpe alongside his GC rivals, Sastre wasted no time in attacking. After surging away from the field in the first couple of kilometres of the climb, Sastre put on a feat of climbing that will go down in Tour history as one of the greatest individual performances of all time. At the summit, some 14 km's later, Sastre had built a two minute buffer over the rest of the field and surged to the top of the General Classification. In another Tour marred by drug controversy, the sight of Sastre climbing into the heavens with everything on the line will have warmed the hearts of cycling purists around the globe.

The rest of the overall contenders finished basically together, but none of them could match the epic performance of Sastre. With the Schleck brothers causing havoc like a couple of school boys in the yellow jersey group, the chase could never really gather momentum, and it was up to Cadel Evans to drag the rest of the field up to Sastre over the closing 3 km's in order to limit his losses to something he may be able to overturn in the final time trial. No one helped him and by the end they had all lost over 2 minutes to the Spaniard. Sastre now holds the yellow jersey by 84 seconds from Frank Schleck. Bernhard Kohl is at 93 seconds, with Evans at 94, and Denis Menchov at 2 minutes 39 seconds.

The result leaves the race on tenterhooks. We now seem to have a race in two - Evans v Sastre. The question being is Sastre's 94 second lead enough to hold off Evans over Saturday's exceptionally long 53km time trial. Sastre lost 76 seconds to Evans in the first time trial, a much shorter 29.5km affair, but he did finish in the top 30 on the stage so he is by no means a muppet against the clock. On a normal stage I would expect Evans to put at least 2 minutes into Sastre in a time trial of this length, but Saturday will not be a normal stage. Riders in yellow have a habit of over performing in the final time trial, just as Alberto Contador did last year when in theory Evans should have been able to claw back sufficient time to steal the maillot jaune from him. I am expecting a similar above average performance from Sastre on Saturday.

For that reason I see the probabilities of either rider taking this years tour as 60-40 in favour of Evans, although betting markets will most likely have Evans much shorter. Sastre will have the advantage of having Evans times to ride too which may allow him to limit his losses to an mount that still leaves him with the yellow jersey for the ride into Paris. Frank Schleck and Kohl do not have enough of a buffer of Evans and will slip below him in the GC. The wild card is Menchov, who would expect to move onto the podium given his time-trialling ability, and with a miracle performance would be an outside hope at taking the title in Paris. In summary, my prediction for the final podium in Paris is currently: Cadel Evans - Carlos Sastre - Denis Menchov.

In the other classifications there was again no change to the points competition with all the sprinters finishing in the groupetto. Bernhard Kohl increased his lead in the King of the Mountains competition to a seemingly unassailable 45 points, with Sastre's efforts on L'Alpe seeing him climb to second in the competition, equal on points with Frank Schleck. The race for the White Jersey has been reduced to two riders. Again Vincenzo Nabali lost time on the day's climbs, allowing Andy Schleck to increase his lead in the competition to 1 minute 58 seconds, from Tour de Suisse winner Roman Kreuziger.

Yellow Jersey - Carlos Sastre
Green Jersey - Oscar Freire
Polka Dot Jersey - Bernhard Kohl
White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Evans Holds Firm As Menchov Loses Time; Vande Velde Loses Tour

On a day when the French celebrated a stage quinella with Cyril Dessel defeating countrymen Sandy Casar, Denis Menchov lost 30 seconds on the descent from Restefond, while Christian Vande Velde saw his tour hopes go up in smoke after he finished three and a half minutes behind his main GC rivals.

The stage again saw a breakaway survive the high mountain passes with Dessel having the strongest legs at the end of Stage 16 from Cuneo to Jausiers. His sprint was enough to defeat fellow breakaway companions Casar, and David Arroyo who filled the podium in third. The remainder of the ten man break that included stars such as George Hincapie and Yaroslav Popovych finished in gaps up to a minute back.

In terms of the GC the big losers on the day were Menchov and Vande Velde. Menchov again found a creative way to lose time, this time getting skittish on the descent from the final climb of the day, while Vande Velde showed his first sign of weakness for the Tour after cracking on the climb up the Cime de la Bonette-Restefond and then crashing on the descent. He can no longer win the tour. Cadel Evans importantly held his ground on the remainder of his rivals, and now is only one high mountain stage away from winning the tour given his time trialling ability (but what a mountain stage it will be!). With the rest of the favourites finishing together Frank Schleck still holds a seven second lead over Bernhard Kohl in the race for the yellow jersey.

Again the high mountain stage meant there was no change to the points competition, and with a 10-man breakaway taking all the points on the climbs there was no real change to the King of the Mountains competition either. However, poor day from Vincenzo Nabali, who lost over 5 minutes to the winner of the stage, has seen a change in the Best Young Rider classification. The White Jersey now passes to Andy Schleck by just six seconds, a well deserved reward for a man that has worked tirelessly for his brother in the Alps so far.

But the inability of the better climbers to put more time into Evans on the stage means we are likely to see some major fireworks on the slopes of L'Alpe d'Huez tonight. Frank Schleck, Kohl and Carlos Sastre (currently trailling Evans) will all need more advantage than they currently have to hold him off in the final time trial. Given the seeming reluctance of Team CSC to blow the peleton apart overnight, it seems everything is being left down to tonight's stage. We can expect to see the time-trial specialists, Evans and Menchov hit repeatedly by the CSC boys and Kohl as they try to get as much time as possible heading into Saturday's final time trial. Menchov will also have to put time into Evans somehow, as he is unlikely to beat him by a minute (if at all!) in the race against the clock. It is unfortunate that the powerful Russian seems to lose time on the most random and unneccessary of occasions.

Yellow Jersey - Frank Schleck
Green Jersey - Oscar Freire
Polka Dot Jersey - Bernhard Kohl
White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Monday, July 21, 2008

Menchov Closes In On Favouritism


With last night's shake up in Italy there has been a marked re-assessment of prices in betting markets on the Tour. Cadel Evans has drifted from $1.80 to around $2.80 (not surprisingly - does this look like a man with the hardness to win the tour), with Denis Menchov (would be some chance of eating a dog were it to get him the yellow jersey in Paris!) now challenging for favouritism at $3.80 in from $5. It is then $10 each of three - Frank Schleck, Carlos Sastre, and Bernhard Kohl.

Given current pricing the best option would appear to be to lay Kohl at $10. He was a relative no-name before the start of the race and doesn't really have the cycling pedigree of the other riders at the top of the GC. It would be a massive shock if he wore the yellow jersey in Paris. Just ask Lance Armstrong (c/o cyclingnews.com):

"To be honest I have been surprised by [Bernhard] Kohl though. I've simply never heard of that guy before the race. Who is he?"
Photo c/o Yahoo Sports.