Gerrans was part of a four man breakaway that gained a maximum advantage of over 17 minutes on the peleton. That was more than enough to see the quartet survive up the final climb to the Italian ski resort. While Gerrans was dropped halfway up the climb as Egoi Martinez and Danny Pate tried to reduce the break to two, he managed to slowly pull himself back to the pair over the final 5 km's. As the roads flattened out over the final 200 metres, Gerrans used his superior kick to accelerate away from his companions to record the biggest victory of his career. Martinez finished second, 3 seconds back while Pate had nothing left over the last few metres, but still filled the podium in third a further 7 seconds back.
Meanwhile the race for the yellow jersey in Paris was rocked to its foundations on the final climb. After countering attack after attack from first Carlos Sastre, then Andy & Frank Schleck, and finally Denis Menchov and Bernhard Kohl, Cadel Evans finally snapped towards the top of the climb. Sastre, Menchov, and Kohl raced ahead with Alejandro Valverde to gain half a minute on Evans, finishing around 4 minutes behind Gerrans. Frank Schleck, not willing to drag Evans up to his teammate Sastre up the road, waited till the final kilometre to breakaway with Christian Vande Velde, but picked up more than the single second he required to take the yellow jersey. At the top of the climb Evans had lost a total of:
- 47 seconds to Kohl and Sastre
- 38 seconds to Valverde
- 27 seconds to Menchov
- 9 seconds to Frank Schleck and
- 7 seconds to Vande Velde
This leaves us with the astonishing situation of three riders within 8 seconds of each other at the top of the GC, with another 3 riders within three quarters of a minute. Frank Schleck now holds the yellow jersey by 7 seconds from surprise packet Bernhard Kohl, who has the new lead in the King of The Mountains jersey for comfort. Evans is a further second back followed by Menchov (@ 38 seconds), Vande Velde (@ 39 seconds) and Sastre (@ 49 seconds).
Given that we have now hit the second rest day and have completed one day in the Alps it is again time to re-asses where the race is headed. To my surprise, we are probably less closer to finding the winner of this year's Tour then we were a week ago. The problem for Evans now is that Menchov and Vande Velde are closing in - and they can time trial! Previously I thought they would not be able to out-climb Evans but the stage into Italy shows they can. Evans weakness also means that we could see the pure climbers like Schleck and Sastre put such time into him in the last two mountain stages that he cannot make up the ground in the time trial. I could easily see Frank Schleck putting in a similar performance in the final time trial to what Alberto Contador did last year if he is defending the yellow jersey.
I will make the claim now that I don't think Vande Velde or Kohl can win the overall title. I would be very surprised if either could pull off the GC. I am predicting Vande Velde will lose time in the Alps, while Kohl will lose more time than he can gain in the mountains in the final time trial. That leaves us with Schleck, Evans, Sastre, and Menchov. At this moment in time I would rank Evans on top from Menchov, Schleck and then Sastre. I still think Evans will most likely win the Tour, but to me he just does not have the presence that a Tour winner seems to command. Simon Gerrans has more first place finishes over the line in his Tour career than him for Christ's sake! Evans does have a stage win to his credit but it was when Alexandre Vinokourov was thrown out of the race for doping last year after beating the field by panels in the second time trial. Menchov looked imperious last night and may be in the golden fleece right now if he had not crashed when attacking his rivals on the final climb. He has the power to put Evans under pressure on the climbs and match him in the final time trial. Schleck will probably have to win in the style of Contador last year. Put sufficient time into Evans on the climb that he cannot make it up in the time trial. Castre will need a superhuman victory (5 minutes plus!) on L'Alpe d'Huez to win.
In the minor classifications there was no change to the Green Jersey competition with none of the sprinters getting anywhere near the top 10 on the day's stage. Oscar Freire still holds the lead and will win the competition so long as he gets to Paris. The lead in the King of The Mountains competition has passed to Bernhard Kohl. Given that his nearest rival is his team-mate Sebastian Lang he can most likely hold the jersey just by attempting to maintain his high overall position. Vincenzo Nabali still holds the White Jersey but Roman Kreuziger and Andy Schleck have closed on him with superior performances up to Prato Nevoso. This competition will go right down to the wire in Paris.
On a sadder note, Oscar Pereiro is out of this years Tour after an horrific crash on the descent of the Col Agnel saw him break his shoulder blade, and Mark Cavendish chose to exit the race voluntarily in order to focus on the Beijing Olympics. The Tour will be a lesser event for both their departures.
Yellow Jersey - Frank Schleck
Green Jersey - Oscar Freire
Polka Dot Jersey - Bernhard Kohl
White Jersey - Vincenzo Nabali
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